COMMENTARY 6/23/14 **WHEAT QUALITY AT RISK

WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to see that it IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.

BUNGE will not accept delivery of produced from the following seed:

CORN: Agrisure Viptera MIR 162 (Syngenta), Bayer/Genective -Event VCO-01981-5, Agrisure Duracade – Event 5307 (Syngenta), Stine Maize – Event HCEM485, DuPont/Pioneer – Event 4114-3, Monsanto – MON 87427

SOYBEAN: Vistive Gold – MON 87705 (Monsanto), Soymega – MON 87769 (Monsanto), Plenish (DuPont/Pioneer), Bayer – Event FG72

 WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you planted.  Ensure what they sold you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are contaminated seed issues out there.

 

COMMENTARY

CORN                      

DOWN 9

St Louis river levels rising  at +20.5 ft today and forecast to be 25.1 by 6/28.  Flooding and high water in Iowa means likely less loading for corn barges.  That means more demand for STL barges that are 3 days CLOSER to the Gulf for off loading onto export vessels.

Funds are still LONG some 771 mill bu of corn.  “RAIN MAKES GRAIN”.  More rain over the weekend, especially in the Western Belt with up to 1 ½” falling in some areas.  Seasonable/mild and unsettled pattern to continue for at least another 10-14 days.  The majority of areas receiving rain will see yield potential enhanced. Expecting another round of unneeded moisture for the IA/MN area late week and into the weekend.

TODAY’s Nationwide Crop Rating  SLIPPED 2%  at 74% G/E vs 76% LW and 65% LY.  The State of IL  INCREASED 2% at 78% G/E vs 76% LW.

 

BEANS

OLD UP 9      NEW UP 2

Funds are still LONG some 395 mill bu of YSB.    A 30 cent trade range today as the market tries to debate the effects of ample moisture.  Export Inspections DID show some signs of rationing this am at 2.4 vs 8.0 LW and expectations of 3 – 7.

US Planting Progress is 95% THIS WEEK, 92%LW, 91% LY, and 904% AVG.  Planting progress for The State of IL was 96% THIS WEEK, 94% LW, 95% LY, and 93% AVG.  US EMERGENCE was 890% THIS WEEK, 83% LW, 79% LY, and 87% AVG.  Emergence for the State of IL was 93% THIS WEEK, 89% LW, 84% LY, and 8% AVG.  US CROP CONDITIONS are 72 % G/E, 73% LW, and65%LY. The State of IL was 73% G/E THIS WEEK and 72%LW.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 5

Funds are NOW SHORT some -130 million bu of wheat.   HRS conditions dropped 9% in MN due to excessive rains with national ratings dropping 1 to 71% G/E.  Harvest is moving along at 33% vs. 31% AVG with (TX 69%, OK 74%, KS 24%).  Scattered storms this week will further degrade quality and increase discounts.

Quality concerns ARE NOW UPON US!    HIGHER levels of Vomitoxin are being seen in fields that were NOT treated with Fungicide.  Initially, TW are 58 – 60 to start with.  As harvest creeps forward, rain will deteriorate the TW and quality once ripe and warm humid conditions will encourage additional fungal activity.  Significant amounts of damage are being seen, especially in extreme Southern IL.  This week will be detrimental if the conditions stay right for fungal activity, creating scab, shrinking wheat berries, and causing VOMI levels to increaseVomi discounts have soared over the weekend as the markets digest the effects of FEED GRADE quality wheat.  IT IS ADVISABLE TO CUT WHEAT WETTER THAN NORMAL AND DRY IT TO INTERRUPT FUNGAL ACTIVITY

Winter Wheat conditions are  30% G/E THIS WEEK, 30% LW, and 32% LY.  Conditions for the State of IL are 59% G/E THIS WEEK and 59% LW.  KS G/E is a mere 11%, OK G/E is only 5%, and TX G/E is 15%.  Winter heat HARVESTED is 33% This Week, 16% LW, 19% LY, and 31% AVG