COMMENTARY 6/17/14

WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to see that it IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.

BUNGE will not accept delivery of produced from the following seed:

CORN: Agrisure Viptera MIR 162 (Syngenta), Bayer/Genective -Event VCO-01981-5, Agrisure Duracade – Event 5307 (Syngenta), Stine Maize – Event HCEM485, DuPont/Pioneer – Event 4114-3, Monsanto – MON 87427

SOYBEAN: Vistive Gold – MON 87705 (Monsanto), Soymega – MON 87769 (Monsanto), Plenish (DuPont/Pioneer), Bayer – Event FG72

 WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you planted.  Ensure what they sold you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are contaminated seed issues out there.

 

COMMENTARY

CORN                      

DOWN 2

St Louis river levels easing  at +19.1 ft today and forecast to be 18.7 by 6/22.

Lower prices are attracting some demand.  Funds are still LONG some 796 mill bu of corn.   Corn condition is the 5th BEST since 1986!   Warmer temps – THAT is what corn likes.  One analyst thinks that Dec corn futures could get as low as $3.85 by early harvest.  Today they are weeping around $4.39.  Technically nearby we closed weaker but NOT below 4.35 in the July futures slot.  That is good technically for now!   Forecast still looks pretty wet for the Corn Belt, especially LATE in the week.  Near ideal growing conditions throughout the corn belt.   Monday’s Export Inspections were solid at 43.4 with expectations of 37 to 47 million.  Informa reduced planted acres by 110,000 to 91.6 mill vs USDA 91.7 mill.  From Bloomberg, a survey  of traders showed 5 traders bullish, 18 traders bearish and 2 were neutral.

Monday’s  Nationwide Crop Rating  received a 76% G/E vs 765% LW and 64% LY.  Take note that which has only been surpassed five times since record keeping began in 1986.

The State of IL was rated at 76% G/E vs 74% LW.    US EMERGENCE was 97% THIS WEEK, 92% LW, 91% LY, and 96% AVG.  Emergence for the State of IL was 100% THIS WEEK, 97% LW, 93% LY, and 96% AVG.

 

BEANS

OLD DOWN 23      NEW DOWN 4

Best crop ratings since 1986!  Funds delivered another ill timed mass of sales as they continue to  come out of their big long position.  Funds are still LONG some 445 mill bu of YSB.   We’ve had enough rain for the time being.  Unsettled atmosphere conditions are  possible over the next 10 days.  Export Inspections were better than expected at 7.9 to the usual destinations of Japan, Mexico, and Indonesia.  Bloomberg’s market bias survey shows 17 traders bullish, 5 bearish, and 4 neutral.  Cordonnier maintains that the US yield est may need to be raised from 44.5 up 1/2bu to 45 bpa.

US Planting Progress is 92% THIS WEEK, 87%LW, 83% LY, and 90% AVG.  Planting progress for The State of IL was 94% THIS WEEK, 92% LW, 86% LY, and 89% AVG.  US EMERGENCE was 83% THIS WEEK, 71% LW, 63% LY, and 77% AVG.  Emergence for the State of IL was 89% THIS WEEK, 80% LW, 64% LY, and 75% AVG.  US CROP CONDITIONS are 73 % G/E, and 64%LY. The State of IL was 72% G/E THIS WEEK and 76%LW.

 

WHEAT

UP 1

Funds are NOW SHORT some -145 million bu of wheat.  Drier, cooler weather in store for NEXT week.  That should give us a chance to get wheat cut BEFORE quality deteriorates any further.  Monday’s Export Inspections were on the light side at 14.6 vs 15 – 19 expected.   Scattered storms THIS week in the Plains will NOT help quality concerns.  Quality concerns here are on the mind for the wheat locally.  Harvest creeps forward and additional rain will deteriorate the TW and quality once ripe.  Initial scouting showed no signs of scab damage, but recent scouts ARE showing evidence of fungal activity from the cool wet conditions we’ve had since flowering.  Some significant amounts of damage are now being seen.  Keep your eye on the field because the next two weeks will be detrimental if the conditions stay right for fungal activity, creating scab and shrinking wheat berries.  Bloomberg’s market trader survey showed 17 traders bearish, 3 traders bullish, and 3 neutral.

  Winter Wheat headed is 92%THIS WEEK, 86% LW, 88% LY, and 90% AVG.  Winter Wheat conditions are  30% G/E THIS WEEK, 30% LW, and 31% LY.  Conditions for the State of IL are 59% G/E THIS WEEK and 66% LW.  KS G/E is a mere 11%, OK G/E is only 5%, and TX G/E is 15%.